Website of the Department of Health

13 August 2009: weekly swine flu update

• This week there has been a further reduction in the rates of flu-like illness and related activity.
• Weekly GP consultation rates decreased over the last week in England.
• The majority of cases continue to be mild. There is no sign that the virus is changing. It is not becoming more severe or developing resistance to anti-virals.
• Interpretation of data to produce estimates on the number of new cases continues to be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty with the move from GP consultations to the National Pandemic Flu Service. HPA modelling gives an estimate of 25,000 new cases in England last week (range 15,000 to 60,000). There has been a decrease in estimated number of cases in all age groups and in all regions.This estimate incorporates data from National Pandemic Flu Service and GP consultations.

Following the move from laboratory testing for confirmation of swine flu (H1N1v) to clinical diagnosis of cases, the level of flu in the community is being monitored using a range of surveillance mechanisms, including the RCGP consultation rates, QSurveillance®, and the National Pandemic Flu Service.

Current plans are to issue a factual swine flu update every Thursday afternoon on the HPA website. These plans will be kept under review.

For more information visit the Health Protection Agency (HPA) website.

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