The World Health Organization (WHO) and other international organisations have recently warned that an influenza (flu) pandemic is both 'inevitable' and 'imminent'. Such warnings have been fuelled largely by the persistence of a highly virulent strain of 'bird' (avian) flu in Asia that experts fear could trigger another influenza pandemic. While these warnings aim to ensure countries are prepared for such an event, they have also caused public concern over the nature of the threat and our ability to respond to it. The consequences of an influenza pandemic would be serious with the numbers of people falling ill and dying being far higher than with 'ordinary' winter flu outbreaks.
There is a great deal of effort under way, both globally and in this country, to anticipate and respond effectively to an influenza pandemic, should one occur. Protecting the public from infectious diseases, including pandemic influenza, is part of the ongoing work of the Department of Health and is an integral part of its mandate. This guide aims to provide a proper understanding of the nature of the threat, its likely impact on the United Kingdom and reassure people that our country is ready to respond.
Influenza pandemics are not new. Three flu pandemics caused public health emergencies during the last century and experts are predicting that another is due. The current epidemic of highly pathogenic avian (bird) flu (A/H5N1), now widespread among poultry in Asia, is generally believed to have increased the likelihood of such an event occurring in the near future. The consequences of an influenza pandemic would be serious with the numbers of people falling ill and dying being far higher than with 'ordinary' winter flu outbreaks.
In my 2002 report, Getting ahead of the curve - a strategy for combating infectious diseases, I highlighted the importance of developing strong contingency plans to reduce the impact of a flu pandemic which, nevertheless, would be serious. Being prepared is not only prudent but necessary in today's globalised environment. The global expansion in tourism and the vast increase in air travel can accelerate the spread of infectious diseases, allowing little time to prepare. The rapid international spread of Severe Acute Respiratory Syndrome (SARS) in 2003, for example, provided some valuable lessons in emergency public health protection. This, together with an outbreak of avian flu (A/H5N1) in Hong Kong in 1997, highlighted the need for countries to develop or improve existing contingency plans.
Following on from the commitment to protecting the UK from infectious diseases, made in Getting ahead of the curve, and in response to revised recommendations made by the World Health Organization, the UK health departments have developed a new and flexible contingency plan for responding to an influenza pandemic. The UK health departments' Influenza Pandemic Contingency Plan 2005 (thereafter referred to as the 'UK Plan') is an updated version of the Multiphase Contingency Plan for Pandemic Influenza published by the UK health departments in 1997. The UK plan, one of a number of national pandemic influenza contingency plans currently under preparation, has been developed in collaboration with the World Health Organization and incorporates international expertise and recommendations. Recently launched as a consultation document, the plan can be viewed in full at: www.dh.gov.uk/pandemicflu.
The UK plan is a technical document, aimed at planners in government departments, health service organisations and other agencies involved in responding to an influenza pandemic. While it has been shared with all health workers and NHS staff, so that they will know what to do if pandemic flu reaches the UK, it has not been distributed to the public at large. It is hoped that this explanatory guide will provide a useful reference document for members of the public and health professionals wishing to better understand the threat, its likely impact on the UK and their country's plans to respond.
A quick summary of the key facts relating to pandemic flu follows on page 7. A leaflet and a question and answer sheet are available separately.
Sir Liam Donaldson, Chief Medical Officer
