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Evaluation of the Met Office health forcasting project for primary care and NHS trusts

  • Document type:
    Report
  • Author:
    Department of Health
  • Published date:
    16 June 2006
  • Primary audience:
    Professionals
  • Publication format:
    Electronic only
  • Gateway reference:
    6753
  • Pages:
    49
  • Copyright holder:
    Crown

In 2004/05, following earlier development work, the Met Office implemented a pilot health forecasting system in eight Strategic Health Authorities of England to provide weekly risk predictions for emergency hospital admission for Chronic Obstructive Pulmonary disease (COPD) and for acute hospital admissions in general.

The Department of Health's R&D Division commissioned a formative evaluation of these pilots from a group led by Dr Paul Wilkinson at the London School of Hygiene and Tropical Medicine. 

The attached report presents the findings of this evaluation based on an analysis of the health forecasting data and on interviews with NHS staff in the pilot areas.  Given the early nature of the implementation, the main outcomes of interest were the accuracy of the forecast models for COPD acute hospital admission, the reported changes in practice, and personal assessments of the forecasting scheme. 

The report concludes that the evidence appears sufficiently encouraging to recommend wider testing.  However, the study did not entail comparison between PCTs/Trusts participating in the health-forecasting scheme with those elsewhere, so clear inferences were not possible about the benefits in terms of objectively-measured improvements in health outcomes.  Formal assessment of the cost-effectiveness is recommended once more experience is gained on how best to use health forecasting.

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