Website of the Department of Health

15 October 2009: weekly swine flu update

The flu-like illness rate in England from the Royal College of General Practitioners (RCGP) scheme increased to 29.1 per 100,000 in week 41.

• An increase was seen in most age groups except those over 65 years.
• The main burden of flu-like illness nationally is in the 5-14 and 15-24 years age groups.
• This week, the antiviral collection numbers in the National Pandemic Flu Service have continued to increase and this has been seen in all age groups except the over 65s. The largest increase (17%) in week 41 was seen in the 5-14 year olds.
• Interpretation of data to produce estimates on the number of new cases continues to be subject to a considerable amount of uncertainty. HPA modelling gives an estimate of 27,000 new cases in England last week (range 13,000 to 58,000) compared with 18,000 in week 40.  This indicates a doubling every two weeks. 
  

This estimate incorporates data from National Pandemic Flu Service and GP consultations.

• During week 39 (September 27-October 3) flu activity increase sharply in the US.

Following the move from laboratory testing for confirmation of swine flu to clinical diagnosis of cases, the level of flu in the community is being monitored using a range of surveillance mechanisms, including the RCGP consultation rates, QSurveillance®, and the National Pandemic Flu Service.

Current plans are to issue a factual swine flu update every Thursday afternoon on the HPA website. These plans will be kept under review.

For more more information visit the Health Protection Agency (HPA) website.

• Health Protection Agency (opens new window)